JPMorgan Bitcoin Forecast Gives BTC a Major Edge Over US Stocks

JPMorgan Asset Management issued its first long-term Bitcoin forecast in its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions on October 19, projecting a 10% annual compounded return, which accounts for gains and losses across periods, over 10 to 15 years and the highest modeled return among the assets compared. It projected 7.5% for U.S. large-cap stocks, 8.2% for U.S. real estate investment trusts and 5.5% for gold. The firm also assigned Bitcoin 55% annualized volatility, versus about 18% for large-cap equities and 17.2% for gold, and said it uses a separate, smaller covariance matrix—a model of how asset returns move together—for Bitcoin rather than its main long-term portfolio construction models because of its volatility and unstable correlations with conventional assets.