Bitcoin Midterm Election Pattern: Will BTC Repeat Its Post-Election Rally?

Bitcoin was trading near $78,000 ahead of the Nov. 3, 2026, U.S. midterm elections, with its performance after the previous three midterms averaging a 53.7% gain over the following 12 months. Those elections showed mixed short-term results: Bitcoin fell 27.5% in the 90 days after the 2014 vote and 46.5% after 2018, but rose 22.6% after 2022. The market is now above a June low near $57,803, and the crypto industry has put $176 million into the 2026 midterm races. The CLARITY Act, a crypto market oversight bill, stalled when the Senate failed to advance it in September, after which Bitcoin dropped more than 5%.