US Midterms Are Here: History Points to a Stock Rally but Trouble for Bitcoin

Prediction markets put about a 76% chance on a Democratic sweep of the 2026 US midterms that would strip President Donald Trump of both chambers, with Democrats at roughly 94%–95% to win the House and 76% to take the Senate. Since 1954, when a president lost both congressional chambers, the S&P 500 rose in six of seven cases, averaging 2.1% in the next month and higher in all seven after three, six, and 12 months. Bitcoin fell more than 45% within 71 days after the 2014 vote and almost 50% within 39 days after 2018; its 2022 drop coincided with FTX’s collapse. Those post-election lows later became cycle bottoms, with 12-month gains of about 24%, 45%, and 92%.