Polymarket probes Israel election bets, exposing the limits of on-chain forensics

Polymarket is investigating bets placed on Israel’s October 27 election before polling stations closed, including wagers on Benjamin Netanyahu remaining prime minister and Likud being the largest Knesset party. Bubblemaps identified 101 accounts funded on election day before voting ended, and some accounts withdrew more than $100,000 after exit polls were published. The platform is examining wallets for possible insider trading, but suspicious timing and newly funded accounts are not proof of wrongdoing, and no link to election officials or insiders has been publicly established. Polymarket’s international crypto platform allows anonymous trading, while its U.S. platform requires identity verification.