Morgan Stanley Puts a Number and a Timeline on China’s Stock Bottom

Morgan Stanley estimated in a Sunday note that offshore Chinese shares could fall another 10% to 15% and that Chinese equity markets have tended to bottom one to two months after high-profile purchases by state funds known as the national team, especially when policymakers publicly pledged to stabilize stocks. The CSI 300 mainland benchmark had fallen 13.44% in 2026 and entered a bear market last week, while the Hang Seng was down 11.87%. Morgan Stanley expects offshore valuations to reach about 8 times forward earnings and mainland shares to trade at 10 to 11 times; the CSI 300 trades at 11.6 times and the Hang Seng at 9.5 times. Central Huijin, the lead state investor, had about $188 billion left last week, Bloomberg Intelligence estimated.