Lula Wins Brazil Election, Stock Market Crashes 15%. What's Next?

Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva was re-elected Brazil's president with 51.77% of the vote, defeating right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro in a result dated October 26, 2026. Brazil's stock market fell nearly 30%, the real lost 10%, and more than $200 billion in market capitalization was erased. Gabriel Magno, an AW Capital partner, said the outcome reversed pricing for fiscal improvement and lower interest rates, while other specialists warned of higher anticipated rates, a weaker currency and losses in fixed-rate and inflation-linked bonds as borrowing costs rose. Dollar-revenue companies Embraer and WEG and low-income homebuilders Cury and Direcional were cited as possible defensive holdings, with Lula's finance-minister choice and a credible public-debt plan seen as the next tests.