JPMorgan's first bitcoin forecast puts BTC's 10% ahead of stocks and gold

J.P. Morgan Asset Management published its first long-term bitcoin forecast on Oct. 19 in its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, projecting a 10% compounded annual return, which accounts for losses, over the next decade. In a separate comparison with 12 common investments, that base case was the highest; its bear and bull cases were -11.2% and 16.6%, based on a $83,000 spot price as of Sept. 30. The bank kept bitcoin out of its main covariance matrices, which measure how asset prices move together, because of 55% annualized volatility, roughly three times gold’s. The report’s authors, Sheena Shah and Dennis Cristallo, characterized bitcoin as the crypto market’s core asset, pointing to its liquidity, longevity and clearer regulation.