JPMorgan Gives Bitcoin 10% a Year – Then Keeps It Apart

JPMorgan Asset Management, in its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions released October 19, assigned bitcoin a 10% compound annual return assumption over 10 to 15 years and 55% annualized volatility. The report covers more than 200 asset classes and gives U.S. large-cap stocks a 7.5% return assumption with 18% volatility and gold 5.5% with 17.2% volatility. JPMorgan did not place bitcoin in the main covariance matrices its models use to gauge how assets move together, instead giving it a separate, smaller matrix against 12 dollar-denominated assets, citing high volatility and unstable correlations. It also rejected the idea that currency debasement would drive a rush into crypto.