JPMorgan Expects Bitcoin to Beat Stocks and Gold: But There’s a Catch

In its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, JPMorgan Asset Management has added bitcoin for the first time, projecting a 10% annual compounded return over the next 10 to 15 years. The report contains the first formal bitcoin estimate in its more than 30-year history and compares with 7.5% for US large-cap stocks, 8.2% for US REITs and 5.5% for gold. JPMorgan still cited bitcoin's roughly 55% volatility and unstable correlations, and has not put it in its main asset-correlation model, though it supplies a separate smaller model covering selected public-market assets. The bank said the figures support 10- to 15-year portfolio planning, not short-term trading, and are not a price target or allocation recommendation.