Hollywood Prediction Market Faces Insider Scare: James Bond Casting Bets Shift

Hollywood studios and production companies are warning employees not to bet on prediction markets, after a platform temporarily suspended its market on the next James Bond actor when a sudden wave of wagers backed Callum Turner. The guidelines cover casting decisions, release dates and studio earnings, and at least one company has set up an anonymous hotline for reporting suspected insider betting. On Nov. 6, Kalshi showed Turner at 62% implied probability, ahead of Josh O’Connor at 18% and Jack Lowden at 14%, while Amazon MGM Studios had not announced its next 007. Kalshi previously fined a video editor for MrBeast’s company $20,000 after he reportedly made about $5,000 using confidential information; Beast Industries then fired him.