Goldman Adds 17% to Its Brent Call: Is It Actually Bullish?

Goldman Sachs raised its December Brent crude forecast to $105 a barrel, 17% above its October estimate of $90, citing elevated supply-disruption risk. Analysts led by Daan Struyven tied the revision to the Middle East and Russia-Ukraine conflicts and broader geopolitical fragmentation, adding a 1 million barrel-per-day disruption allowance to the bank’s 2027 base case. Brent traded at $110.40 on November 2, so the new target was about 5% below the market; Goldman’s WTI forecast of $94 also trailed $101.06. Last week Iran claimed mines struck four tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, a claim U.S. forces disputed. JPMorgan’s model put Brent’s fair value at $94 against a market price near $114.