Fidelity's Timmer Doubts 60/40 Revival as Stock-Bond Correlation Slips

On Nov. 4, Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity Investments' director of global macro, said he doubts the 60/40 portfolio has returned, citing a five-year stock-bond correlation still above zero at current Treasury yields and a latest reading between 10% and 12% based on data through Nov. 2. The 60/40 mix holds 60% stocks and 40% bonds and relies on bonds rising when equities fall. Timmer's chart tracks the S&P 500 and long-dated Treasuries; the correlation was negative when yields were extremely low in 2013 and 2020 and turned positive as yields climbed. Shorter 13-week readings fell or turned negative during the 1998 Long-Term Capital Management scare, the dot-com bust and the 2025 tariff selloff, while the five-year regime stayed positive.