Fidelity's Timmer Blames Sticky Inflation and Fiscal Risk for Rising Bond Yields

Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity Investments’ director of global macro, said in an October 22 post that this year’s bond-yield rise has multiple causes, including persistent structural inflation and growing fiscal risk, rather than a simpler account involving growth and AI capital-spending concerns. The 10-year Treasury yield fell 14.6 basis points, or 0.146 percentage point, last week after briefly reaching 5.33% following an October 14 Consumer Price Index report. Annual inflation was 3.7% versus 3.6% expected, while core inflation, excluding food and energy, was 2.6% versus 2.5% expected. The Federal Reserve meets October 27-28; CME FedWatch, which tracks futures pricing, put rate-hike odds at 17.2% Monday, down from 57.6% a month earlier.