Evercore Names the 3 Conditions That Could Wipe Out S&P 500’s Gains

Evercore ISI’s worst-case midterm scenario for the S&P 500 requires three conditions: a Democratic sweep, a disputed election result, and military escalation with Iran before the new Congress convenes in January. That combination would leave the index at 6,800 by year-end, nearly erasing its 2026 gains. As Democratic sweep odds reached 95%, Nasdaq 100 futures fell nearly 1.5%, and the S&P 500 lost about $500 billion in market value over two hours. West Texas Intermediate crude traded near $94.40 a barrel on Wednesday; Evercore ties the Iran risk to oil above $120 for a month or longer, or a spike to $147. The US reportedly struck Iran’s Qeshm Island on Monday.