Arthur Hayes: Can AI IPO Dilution Choke Bank Liquidity and Hit Bitcoin?

Arthur Hayes, BitMEX co-founder who runs family office Maelstrom, argued in a Nov. 5 newsletter that share unlocks after listings by SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI could dilute their stock, weaken AI credit and shrink bank balance sheets that he says fueled crypto’s August rebound. He contends banks create credit by lending to AI firms, financing stock traders and buying shares, so lower equity prices could raise the labs’ borrowing costs. Hayes estimated Anthropic faces 83% dilution by June 2027 after its planned IPO, and at a $1.5 trillion valuation keeping its price flat would require about $1.245 trillion in new capital. Anthropic’s amended IPO filing showed a $567 million third-quarter operating loss but $2.46 billion in adjusted operating income.