ARK Invest Bets One Business Can Lift Tesla Stock to $4,400

ARK Invest’s updated Tesla model projects a share price near $4,400 in 2031, almost 12 times Tesla’s October 19 close of $368.06 after the stock fell 18.16% since January 1. ARK ties about 80% of Tesla’s 2031 enterprise value, a measure of total company value, to robotaxis, its driverless ride-hailing service, and forecasts about 8.1 million robotaxis producing $753 billion in net ride-hail revenue that year. The model also projects 10.2 million car sales in 2031, up from 1.6 million in 2025, and $1.45 trillion in total revenue. ARK’s 2024 model had projected $2,600 for 2029 and expected a 2025 robotaxi launch; Tesla began its robotaxi service in Austin in June 2025 and expanded to seven cities across three states.