A Bond-Market Signal Last Seen in the 2025 Tariff Shock Just Flashed Again

Global corporate bond yield premiums reached as much as 129 basis points, their highest since May 2025, as concerns about debt-funded artificial-intelligence spending and rising geopolitical tension drove investors toward safer assets. On Friday, spreads on higher-rated Asian dollar bonds hit their widest since last July and major Asian stock indexes fell. Regional credit-default swaps, which act as insurance against default and signal greater perceived risk when their price rises, widened about 1.5 basis points to 78 at the open. Chinese technology spreads widened 3 to 5 basis points and Chinese investment-grade spreads by up to 5, while Indian investment-grade and Korean spreads widened by as much as 3. US Treasuries rallied across maturities for their best day in more than two years.